Planning as a Science,
Not an Art
Proven project management principles applied to maritime operations.
Years ago, I asked myself a simple question:
Why don't we apply the same principles that transformed IT, construction, and finance to maritime planning?
Project management is considered a near-exact science. The PMBOK framework has been refined over decades. Companies that adopt it outperform those that don't. The results are measurable, repeatable, proven.
Yet in maritime operations, especially feeder shipping, we still improvise. We still treat planning as a side task. We still accept chaos as normal.
I decided to change that.
It wasn't easy. I faced resistance. The maritime industry has an archaic mentality. "This is how we've always done it." "Ships are different." "You can't apply land-based thinking to sea operations."
But I persisted. And I built something new.
Planner on Duty brings project management discipline to maritime planning.
The Framework
Traditional project management follows a proven structure. We adapted it for maritime operations.
Strategy
From trade analysis to stress-tested rotation.
Execution
Dedicated planning with real-time KPI monitoring.
Improvement
Learn, refine, compound the advantage.
Phase 1: Strategy
Trade Profitability Analysis
Before a single container is loaded, we analyze the trade.
Questions we answer:
- What cargo volumes exist on this route?
- What's the cargo mix (dry, reefer, DG, OOG)?
- What are the seasonal patterns?
- Who are the competitors?
- What margins are achievable?
This isn't guesswork. It's systematic analysis using market data, historical performance, and industry intelligence.
Port Sequence Optimization
The sequence of ports determines everything.
Factors we evaluate:
- Draft restrictions → Maximum vessel size
- Tidal windows → Schedule reliability
- Terminal capabilities → Crane reach, productivity
- Port costs → Direct operating expenses
- Cargo & geographic efficiency → Revenue and fuel optimization
A port sequence that looks logical on a map might be operationally disastrous. We model every combination to find the optimal rotation.
Vessel Selection
The right vessel for the right trade. Not bigger. Not smaller. Optimal.
Example: If the maximum draft across all ports is 14.0m at zero tide, we won't recommend a vessel with 15.5m full-load draft. That would mean:
- Never operating at full capacity
- Wasted fuel (larger vessel, higher consumption)
- Higher operating costs
- Greater emissions
- Suboptimal economics
Instead, we find the vessel class that maximizes capacity within the constraints. The vessel that fits the trade like a glove.
Monte Carlo Stress Testing
In finance, Monte Carlo simulation tests portfolio robustness under random conditions. We apply the same principle.
We create randomized scenarios:
- What if cargo volumes drop 20%?
- What if fuel prices spike 40%?
- What if Port X closes for 2 weeks?
- What if we face 3 consecutive weather delays?
- What if a key customer switches carriers?
We run hundreds of simulations. We identify breaking points. We build contingency plans. A trade that only works in perfect conditions isn't a trade. It's a gamble.
Phase 2: Execution
The Planner as Execution Engine
Think of a financial broker. They're your interface with the market. They execute your strategy. They monitor conditions. They alert you when action is needed.
The shore planner serves the same function:
- Executes the defined strategy rotation after rotation
- Monitors KPIs in real-time
- Identifies deviations before they become problems
- Recommends adaptive actions when conditions change
This isn't autopilot. It's professional execution with judgment.
KPI Monitoring
You can't improve what you don't measure.
Weekly reviews. Monthly trends. Quarterly deep-dives.
Adaptive Management
The market changes. Conditions change. The strategy must adapt.
When do we recommend a Change of Rotation (COR)?
- Port congestion makes the schedule impossible
- Cargo patterns shift dramatically
- A better commercial opportunity emerges
- Weather forces a deviation
When do we recommend a Port Omit?
- Cargo volume doesn't justify the call
- Port costs exceed revenue
- Schedule recovery requires sacrifice
These decisions follow predefined criteria. Not panic. Not gut feeling. Structured decision-making based on data.
Phase 3: Improvement
Performance Reviews
- What went well?
- What deviated from plan?
- What was the root cause?
- What can we improve?
This isn't blame assignment. It's learning.
Process Refinement
- "Port X consistently causes delays. Adjust buffer time."
- "Cargo type Y always creates restows. Modify acceptance criteria."
- "Terminal Z underperforms on crane splits. Revise planning assumptions."
The process gets better. The results improve. The competitive advantage compounds.
Knowledge Building
- Which terminals actually perform vs. their stated capacity
- Which agents provide reliable load lists vs. last-minute chaos
- Which ports have hidden constraints not in official documentation
We capture this knowledge. We systematize it. New planners inherit decades of accumulated wisdom.
Market Awareness
Maritime shipping has cycles. Bull markets and bear markets. Boom and bust.
Bull Market Tactics
- Maximize capacity utilization
- Optimize for revenue, not just cost
- Accept premium cargo even with complexity
- Expand carefully, validate before committing
Bear Market Survival
- Focus on cost efficiency
- Protect core customers
- Reduce exposure to volatile trades
- Maintain service quality (reputation survives downturns)
The strategy is the plan. Reality is the execution. We follow the strategy, but we're not rigid.
The Planner on Duty Difference
We don't just make stowage plans. We bring project management discipline to maritime operations.